CONTENTS

 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS. 6

 1.         Introduction.. 9

 2.         Methodology.. 11

2.1       Introduction. 11

2.2       Structure of the accounts. 12

2.3       The classification system.. 15

2.4       Data collection. 16

2.5       The SAM Construction Process. 19

 3.         The 2003 Western Isles SAM and Employment matrix.. 21

 4.         Core Regional Analysis. 25

4.1       Introduction. 25

4.2       Gross Regional Domestic Product and Expenditure. 25

4.3       Sectoral Analysis. 31

4.4       The Household Sector 36

4.5       Trade. 39

 5.         Multiplier Analysis. 42

5.1       Introduction. 42

5.2       Sectoral multipliers. 43

5.3       Household multipliers. 46

5.4       Employment effects and employment multipliers. 48

5.5       Final market analysis. 52

 6.         Scenario Analyses. 57

6.1       Introduction. 57

6.2       Economic Impact of a decline in the Aquaculture. 57

6.3       The impact of net immigration and change in household expenditure patterns. 62

6.4       Structural Path analysis: 67

            The role of the construction sector 67

 7.         Final Remarks. 74

7.1       The fragility of economy. 74

7.2       Key issues for businesses participating in the survey. 75

7.3       Study limitations and future research requirements. 77

References. . 80

Appendix 1   Methods Used in SAM Construction. 81

Appendix 2  Structural Path Analysis. 83