Population Projections

Recently released population projections (2006 based) from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) predict that the population of the Western Isles will decline by 5.5% over the next 25 years, from 26,350 in 2006 to 24,892 in 2031.

Projections

Scotland: The 2006-based projections show the total population of Scotland will increase from 5.12 million in 2006 to 5.37 million by 2031 (an increase of 5%). Longer term projections show that Scotland’s population will peak at 5.37 million in 2031 before falling to 5.19 million by 2056. Scotland’s population is now projected to fall below 5 million in 2076, rather than 2036 as the last national projections suggested. Despite the projected rise in the population over the next 25 years, Scotland’s population is still projected to age markedly.

Local Authority Administrative Areas: The populations of 24 of the 32 council areas in Scotland are projected to increase, with the remaining 8 are set to decrease by 2031. The local authority with the sharpest projected population decline from 2004-2024 is Inverclyde with a drop of -15.5%. In general, most council’s adjacent, or close to, Edinburgh City are projected to increase in size, whereas most other large urban centres are projected to decline: Aberdeen City; Glasgow City; and Dundee City.

Highlands and Islands: Over the period, the Shetland Islands are expected to see a -10% decline; Orkney a 15% increase; and Highland an 11% increase. Please see the table below for the percentage change of broad age groups by key comparable areas.

Key Comparator Areas (Percentage Change between: 2006-2031)

	Overall Population	Children	Working Age	Pensionable Age
1	Shetland -10%	Shetland -31%	Shetland -21%	Orkney 56%
2	Western Isles -6%	Western Isles -25%	Dumfries & G -13%	Highland 51%
3	Dumfries & G -3%	Moray -20%	Western Isles -12%	Shetland 51%
4	Moray -2%	Dumfries & G -17%	Moray -10%	Moray 39%
5	Argyll & Bute -2%	Argyll & Bute -15%	Argyll & Bute -9%	Dumfries & G 32%
6	Highland +11%	Highland -8%	Highland +2.2%	Argyll & Bute 28%
7	Orkney +15%	Orkney -6%	Orkney +6%	Western Isles 24%

 

Western Isles: In summary, the projections indicate:

• a 38% decline in the number of annual births from 250 in 2006/07 to 154 in 2030/31;
• a 5.5% decline in population from 26,350 in 2006 to 24,892 by 2031 (a loss of 1,458), the eight largest percentage decline in Scotland;
• In the Western Isles the projected population decline is due to more deaths than births (negative natural change) despite positive net in-migration over the period.

The key factor in population decline in the Western Isles according to the projections is therefore natural change. Within this context, significant changes in the age structure of the Western Isles population are also projected:

• 0-15 yrs: Nationally, the number of children under 5 is projected to fall by 6.9% by 2031. The largest percentage decline in this age group is no longer projected to occur in the Western Isles but in Shetland with a fall of 31.3%. The Western Isles is projected to decline by -25.5% and Orkney -5.5%;

• Working Age: The working age population is projected to increase in 14 council areas from 2006-2031 but increase nationally only by 0.4% over the period. East Dunbartonshire will be the council area with the greatest decline in this age group at -25.2%, while the Western Isles are ninth at -11.5%;

• Pensionable Age:  The population of pensionable age is projected to increase by 2031 in all council areas and will increase nationally by 31.2%. Aberdeenshire will have the highest increase at 76% followed by: West Lothian (58%); and Orkney (56%). The Western Isles is projected to see a 24.3% increase in this age group from 2006 to 2031; this decline is below the national average (and 26 other local authorities areas) but this is mainly due to the fact that we already have a significantly higher proportion of our population in older age groups, as does Dumfries and Galloway and Argyll and Bute.

The projections have been calculated using the principal migration variant, but if a high migration variant was applied, there would be a difference of 7% giving the Western Isles a final population of 26,536 by 2031 – a figure higher than the current population. This demonstrates how important continued and increased in-migration (particularly the young & economically active) is to the stability of our population. See our Outer Hebrides Migration Strategy Action Plan for further info.

By 2024, the populations of most council areas in Scotland are projected to be higher under the 2006-based projection than under the 2004-based projection. There are six exceptions (Argyll & Bute, East Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders, West Lothian, Midlothian and East Dunbartonshire).

The biggest percentage increases between the two sets of projections (2004 and 2006 based) are for Aberdeen City (17%), Orkney (16%) and the Western Isles (14%). These changes have come about because of changes to the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. In the Western Isles, this is mainly due to estimated positive net migration over the last number of years and an increase in the birth and fertility rate.

An explanation of the projection process and assumptions used for Scotland and Local Authority Areas can be found on the GROS website.

Caution

Projections are trend based and therefore envisage conditions in the future based on what currently occurs.  Issues such as migration and natural change must be factored into these calculations and this brings with it considerable uncertainty.  The GROS stress the limits of projections, as a rule, the smaller the population and the further forward from the base year used, the more unreliable the projection, particularly due to the effect of migration.  Fundamentally, official projections don’t take account of policies or initiatives that can, and are sometimes specifically designed to, have an impact on populations and demographics.

 

Source: General Register Office for Scotland, 2006 based population projections